Nigeria, once celebrated for its transition to democracy in 1999 after decades of military rule, now finds its democratic foundations increasingly eroded. The country’s political history is marked by a series of electoral manipulations, but the alarming extent to which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the political elite have colluded to undermine free and fair elections threatens the survival of the nation’s democracy. The most recent examples—the 2023 Presidential election and the 2024 Edo State Governorship election—are symptomatic of a larger national crisis.
This paper presents a critical analysis of how INEC’s rogue tendencies, coupled with the desperate antics of the political class and the electorate’s complicity, pose a serious danger to the future of Nigerian democracy.
INEC’s Complicity in Electoral Malpractice: A History of Bias
Nigeria’s political landscape has always been plagued by electoral fraud, but the recent elections demonstrate an alarming escalation. INEC, established in 1998 to ensure credible elections, has increasingly become part of the problem rather than the solution. The 2023 Presidential election—where Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) emerged victorious amidst widespread allegations of rigging, voter suppression, and manipulation—cast serious doubts on the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral umpire.
The 2024 Edo State Governorship election followed a similar trajectory. APC’s candidate, Monday Okpebholo, clinched a controversial victory despite the party’s abysmal performance at the national level. Okpebholo secured 291,667 votes, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Asue Ighodalo, received 247,274 votes. This result, unsurprisingly, sparked outrage from opposition supporters and civil society groups. The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room (NCSSR) documented widespread voter inducement, ranging from cash handouts of ₦5,000 to ₦10,000 to food items like bread, at polling units across the state. Despite INEC’s promises of reform, its inability—or unwillingness—to prevent such malpractices has further cemented its image as a biased umpire, aiding the political elite in securing power by all means.
This is not a new phenomenon. The 2007 general election, widely regarded as one of the most fraudulent in Nigeria’s history, saw the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua emerge victorious. Yar’Adua himself admitted the election was marred by irregularities, a rare moment of honesty from a Nigerian leader. Fast forward to 2023, and the same issues persist. INEC’s inability to conduct credible elections reflects a broken system that continues to serve the interests of the political class rather than the people.
The Political Class: Power by All Means Necessary
The political elite in Nigeria have long mastered the art of electoral manipulation. From ballot box snatching in the early days of Nigeria’s independence to the modern-day use of vote-buying and security forces, the political class has continuously subverted the democratic process to cling to power. This tendency was particularly evident in the 2023 Presidential election, where Tinubu’s victory was marred by accusations of state-sponsored manipulation. Observers noted the deployment of security forces to intimidate voters in opposition strongholds, while areas loyal to the ruling APC saw significantly smoother processes.
The 2024 Edo State election followed a similar pattern, where the political machinery of the APC overwhelmed the PDP and Labour Party’s attempts to wrestle control. The centralization of power at the federal level further exacerbates this issue. The Federal Government’s overwhelming influence on state-level elections has led to an environment where state governors are beholden to federal authorities, rather than accountable to the people they serve. The result is a political culture in which the ends justify the means—power is retained at all costs, regardless of the consequences for the electorate.
This power-hungry behaviour is not new. Nigeria’s first civilian republic (1963–1966) was marked by the same culture of electoral fraud and violence, which ultimately led to the country’s first military coup. The political class, then as now, failed to understand that democracy cannot thrive in a climate of manipulation, corruption, and disregard for the rule of law.
The People: Complicit in Their Own Subjugation
While INEC and the political class bear the brunt of the blame for Nigeria’s electoral woes, the electorate is not without fault. In both the 2023 Presidential and 2024 Edo elections, voters accepted cash and material inducements in exchange for their votes. This troubling behaviour, in a country ravaged by high inflation (currently hovering around 25.8%), widespread unemployment, and deteriorating living conditions, reflects a disheartening reality—many Nigerians have become so disillusioned with the state of the country that they are willing to sell their votes for short-term relief.
This lack of political awareness and the electorate’s failure to hold their leaders accountable have allowed the political elite to perpetuate the same cycle of corruption and mediocrity. By selling their votes, the people essentially mortgage their future for momentary gains, further entrenching a system that serves only the interests of the ruling class. The long-term consequence of this complicity is the erosion of democratic values, where the electorate becomes passive observers in a game rigged against them.
The Federal Government’s Overreach: Centralizing Power to Control State Elections
A disturbing trend in Nigeria’s democracy is the Federal Government’s increasing interference in state elections. The centralization of power in Abuja has allowed the ruling party to exert undue influence over gubernatorial contests, as seen in Edo’s 2024 election. By controlling state elections, the Federal Government ensures that it maintains overwhelming control over the country’s political landscape. This centralization weakens the autonomy of states and creates an environment where governors are more concerned with pleasing federal authorities than addressing the needs of their constituents.
Nigeria’s federal system was designed to promote decentralization and allow states a degree of autonomy. However, the Federal Government’s persistent attempts to manipulate state elections have effectively turned Nigeria into a quasi-unitary state, where political control is concentrated in the hands of a few.
The Danger Ahead: Nigeria’s Democratic Future at Risk
If these trends continue unchecked, Nigeria’s democracy is at serious risk. The manipulation of elections by INEC, the political class’s relentless pursuit of power, and the electorate’s complacency create a dangerous cocktail that threatens to undo the democratic gains made over the past two decades. A situation where elections no longer reflect the will of the people but rather the desires of the ruling elite sets the stage for political instability, social unrest, and possibly a return to authoritarianism.
The danger posed by the ongoing erosion of democracy cannot be overstated. If electoral malpractices continue to undermine the legitimacy of elected officials, Nigeria risks descending into a state of political chaos, where citizens lose faith in the electoral process, and violent alternatives become more appealing.
Conclusion: A Call for Urgent Reform
Nigeria’s democracy is in peril, but it is not beyond saving. For democracy to survive, INEC must be reformed to become a truly independent and impartial body. The political class must be held accountable for their actions, and the electorate must reject the temptations of vote-buying and demand better from their leaders. Most importantly, the Federal Government must cease its attempts to control state elections and allow for a more decentralized and truly federal system of governance.
Nigeria’s democratic future hinges on the ability of its institutions, leaders, and citizens to rise above the current state of political decay. The 2023 Presidential election and 2024 Edo Governorship election serve as grim reminders of the work that lies ahead. Without immediate and decisive action, Nigeria may find itself at the brink of democratic collapse, with devastating consequences for its people.
