How The Niger Deltans Can Get Their Freedom: The Action Plan! (Part 6)

What the militants need to understand is that quiet a number of the so called foreign oil workers/staff are in actual fact CIA and M15 (British intelligence agency) operatives. The crisis in the Niger delta has also warranted their presence in the region to be mandatory. It will be very naive to assume that the United States, Britain and other countries with vested economic interests in Nigeria‘s oil are not monitoring and analyzing events in the region through their networks of spies. . They are well compensated by their respective governments and the oil multinationals for taking the risk to remain in the region.

Apart from this, foreign oil workers have long been warned to leave the Niger delta for good. Therefore, any foreigner that is still in the Niger delta by now is quiet aware of the fact that he is risking his life, because the region, defacto, is a war zone. Any foreigner kidnapped in the Niger delta today has only himself to be blamed.
Therefore, henceforth, we must not have any mercy or sympathy for any foreign oil worker kidnapped by the militants. Let them pay the price for their greediness! Kidnapping is part of the prices they are paying for their greediness to work in the Niger Delta. After all, they don’t pay Nigeria any taxes from the hundreds of millions of dollars that they receive as salaries. In addition, and they oppress the locals with their oil money and they are going to enjoy their loots alone without us. Finally, the militants should not have any guilty conscience about kidnapping or hostage taking – it’s a ‘legitimate’ way of fighting their course!

Based on this fact, I strongly recommend that that the militants should step up their kidnapping activities and blowing up of oil rigs. The militants need to reduce Nigeria‘s access to foreign earnings from oil to “not more than 10%.” The best way to achieve this feat is to blow up as many pipelines, oil rigs and wells as possible until Nigeria‘s oil production capacity is not more than 10 percent of the present or maximum capacity. This should not be a Herculean task for the militants to achieve since they are already doing these successfully. Moreover, it’s practically impossible for the north to station all its soldiers at all pipelines, oil Riggs nor provide protection for all foreign workers. In any case, stationing all its soldiers to man all oil pipelines, Riggs, definitely, will not only increase Nigeria’s expenditure on security, but can not in any way prevent the militants from blowing them up.

The militants, undoubtedly, deserve a very high commendation for the bold and successful operation carried out in Bonga fields in July. The militants used small boats to travel by night, through notoriously strong currents, a distance more than 3 times the width of the Strait of Dover separating England and France. Oil companies had previously naively thought that the distance alone of deepwater sites like Bonga from the Niger Coast would not be subjected to the level of attacks that have cut output in the Shallow creeks of the Niger Delta in recent years. With the Bonga fields attack, belonging to Shell, the militants have proved that there is no oil field or facility, located in the Niger Delta that can not be blown up.

Angola, in April 2008, produced 1.873 million barrels per day of crude trumping the 1.818 million bpd produced by Nigeria. The target of the militants now should be reducing this figure (1.818) by at least 90 percent. By reducing Nigeria’s present oil production capacity to less than 10 percent and stepping the kidnapping of key foreign workers of oil companies, they will be killing 10 birds with just one stone:

1. Nigeria’s ability to earn foreign currency will be seriously reduced;

2. The credit ratings of Nigeria will suffer a serious set-back due to high political risk. International investment rating agencies like Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch will be forced to assign Nigeria the lowest investment rating. Presently, Fitch ratings has affirmed a long term foreign currency issue default rating (IDR) of ‘BB-‘ (BB minus) to Nigeria, which is a grade below the investment grade.

3. The economic loss of foreign oil companies will increase substantially, and will be forced to close down their operations;

4.Nigeria will not be able to service its outstanding debt obligations before international lenders;

5. The consequence of this is that no international lending institution will take the risk of lending Nigeria money again since it has no means of paying it back;

6. Nigeria will not be able to implement any of the major infrastructural projects already budgeted for – contractors will stop works due to constant delays in payments and/or inability to pay at all;

7. In order to survive, Nigeria will be forced to deep its hand into the $59 billion reserve fund it has set aside for the rainy day;

8. Eventually, Nigeria will go bankrupt – within two years at most;

9. There will be so much pressure on Yaradua from the oil companies, oil exporting countries, international community and Nigerians not just to negotiate with the militants, but reach agreement with them quickly on their own terms;

10. The north will no more look invincible at the summit or any negotiations.

THEY ARE ALREADY FEELING THE PAIN!

The effect of the Niger delta crisis already has a serious resonance in the global energy market and economy in general. The United States, in particular, is affected most.

Many major American airlines; Continental, Delta, North-West, United and others have started grounding their planes due to the high price of gasoline and petroleum which has drastically increased cost of operations. The longer the crises in the Niger delta last, the worse off these airlines will be, and the higher the probability of a mass bankrupt.

According to the latest report released in June, 2008, about 12.5% of American car owners have abandoned their cars for public transport due to high cost of petroleum.

The unprecedented increase in the price of oil and gas has hit the U.S. economy to the extent that on June 18, 2008, the President of the United States, George Bush Jnr., was compelled to approach the Congress to overturn a 26 year ban on offshore oil drilling in the US, and open a part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for petroleum exploration! It is obvious that Bush was forced to take this step out of desperation. The Niger delta crisis is already a serious threat to the U.S. economy which at a first glance may look invincible.

But according to analysts, there is a serious flaw with offshore drilling because even if tomorrow the U.S. opened up every square mile of the outer continental shelf to offshore rigs, even if the U.S. drilled the entire state of Alaska and pulled new refineries out of thin air, the impact on gas prices will be minimal and delayed at best. A 2004 study by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that drilling in ANWR would trim the price of gas by just 3.5 cents a gallon by 2007 (if oil prices continue to skyrocket, the savings will be greater, but not by much) opening up offshore areas to oil exploration might cut the price of gas by 3 to 4 cents a gallon at most, according to the National Defense Council. And the relief of the pump, such at it is, wouldn’t be immediate – it would take several years, at least, for the oil to begin to flow, which is time enough for increased demand from China, India and the rest of the world to outpace those relatively meager savings.

Thus, Bush’s move would not have an impact. The reason for this assertion is very simple: according to statistics, the U.S. has an estimated 3% of global petroleum reserves, but consumes 24% of the world oil. Offshore territories and public lands like ANWR that don’t allow drilling contain about 75 billion barrels of oil, but if you think this is a lot and enough to power the U.S. economy, then you are damn wrong because that amount, from a very simple analysis, will not be enough to make a significant difference in the U.S. economy, where global oil demands is expected to rise 30% by 2030, to nearly 120 million barrels a day!

At best, what the U.S. can achieve by expanding domestic drilling significantly is a reduction in the proportion of oil it imports which is currently about 60% of its total supply, with Nigeria making up 12.5% of this total. However, what needs to be taken into consideration is the undisputed fact that petroleum, being a global commodity, any additional American production will definitely be gulped up by the world market because it’s just like a drop in the bucket.

June 18, 2008, is the watershed in the N.D. crises. The activities of the militants have forced the U.S. government to eventually lift its 26 year embargo on offshore oil exploration! Definitely, this is the bombshell that we have been waiting for! The echo of the N.D. crisis is cracking the U.S. economy! The Niger delta crisis is already creating big holes in the ‘water-proof and invincible’ U.S. economy! U.S. airlines will soon embark on mass lay offs of their workers. And with the mortgage crises, which the U.S. economy is yet to recover from, if the Niger delta crises continue or intensifies, it’s just a matter of time before Uncle Sam’s economy collapses.

In fact, the energy crises in the U.S. are so bad to the extent that the prices of maize/corn have reached for the sky because there is an unprecedented demand for it as an alternative to oil. However, apart from the fact that this alternative is not economic, all the maize in the world will just not be enough to generate the adequate amount of energy the U.S. needs to power its economy.

WHAT IS AFRICOM REALLY ABOUT?

The United States, Britain together with their oil companies have been booted out of Venezuela, which has the 5th largest reserve of oil in the world. The war in Iraq has also reduced significantly the amount of oil that could be available to the United States and its allies. China and India are competing fiercely with the United States for the oil available in the international market. This undoubtedly has led to the skyrocket price of the black gold. The U.S. has turned to the Niger Delta to compensate for shortage in supply in the global market. And since the a substantial part of the Niger Delta oil fields and contracts are controlled by western oil companies, the United States will be in a good position to get a preferential treatment.

The above analysis has shown that all the noise and propaganda about the benefits of U.S. military partnership with Nigeria to safe guard the gulf of Guinea, known as AFRICOM, is nothing but the U.S. desperation and attempt to use force in the Niger delta in order to guarantee an uninterrupted oil production of the multinational oil companies and supply for its economy. Uninterrupted supply of the Niger delta oil is very vital to the survival of the U.S. economy.

Shell has just relinquished its rich oil wells in Ogoniland – which has just been awarded to Gazprom, the Russian energy giant and the biggest gas company in the world.

The above analysis, is more than enough to prove beyond any reasonable doubts that it is the federal government of northern Nigeria, the U.S. and multinational oil companies that are at the mercy of the militants, and not vice versa. The militants need to step up mass kidnapping of top managers of multinational oil companies and blowing up of oil rigs, wells and pipes in order to accelerate their exit from the region.

2. PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE.

There is a Russian proverb that goes thus: “!;>20<8 <>6=> ;5G8BL, A;>20<8 <>6=> :0;5G8BL.” Translation: “It is possible to heal with words; it is also possible to kill with words. In some cases, words could even be more painful than physical pain. I strongly recommend that the N.D. militants should adopt psychological tactics or warfare in their battle against the federal republic of northern Nigeria. This tactics is divided into 2 main parts: A) Psychological attacks mainly on Yaradua personally, his government; and B) Public Relations.

These tactics mainly involve the following:

a. Discrediting and embarrassing Yaradua personally and his government in general – both inside and outside Nigeria;

b. Continuing portraying themselves as victims of the evil and heartless northern led Nigerian government – which they are indeed – inside and outside Nigeria;

c. Taking full psychological control of the whole process in the N.D., and not giving the north any room or opportunity to manipulate them nor the process.

The first step in this tactics is to continue mentioning the illegality of the emergence of Yaradua as the president of Nigeria, and consequently call into question his authority as a legitimate president. The second step in this tactics is not to allow the north to ‘unilaterally’ set any timetable for a summit. The militants should enter into negotiations at a time that is ‘most convenient and best’ for them, and not for the north. The best time for the militants to enter into negotiations or go for any summit is when Nigeria‘s oil capacity has been reduced to not more than 10% and a strong army to take on the northern army is in place. We will return to this later in this article, where this will be treated in details.

THE CONDITIONS FOR ANY FORM OF NEGOTIATIONS OR DISCUSSIONS

Before even holding any preliminary discussions with the north, the militants should give the following conditions that must be met by the north:

a. Withdraw all soldiers, police and State Security Service operatives ‘completely’ from the Niger Delta;

b. Demand for the unconditional release of Henry Okah and other militants;

c. Yaradua personally should tender unconditional apology to the Niger Deltans and militants for all the heinous crimes committed against them by the northern led Nigerian government, and stop talking about amnesty for the militants who took up arms to fight for their freedom;

d. The venue of any official discussions about the Niger Delta must not take place in Abuja, but somewhere in the south, preferably in Lagos.

Psychological attacks on Yaradua.

This tactics involve disrupting all official activities of Yaradua – both inside and outside Nigeria. Well organized and instructed Niger deltans, consisting mainly of women and teenagers should be permanently stationed at the entrance to Yaradua’s office in Aso rock and other venues where he is supposed to make official appearances with placards with the following messages:

1. MURDERER, GIVE US BACK OUR LAND AND OIL MONEY!
2. BARAWO: TAKE YOUR HANDS OFF OUR OIL!
3. YARADUA, WHERE IS THE SNC YOU PROMISED US?
4. YOU BUILT ABUJA WITH OUR MONEY, BUT THE NIGER DELTANS LIVE IN ABJECT POVERTY!
5. YARADUA: THIS IS NOT THE NIGERIA OF OUR DREAM!
6. YARADUA AND NORTH: HANDS OFF OUR OIL!
7. NO OKAH, NO NIGER DELTA SUMMIT!
8. YARADUA: YOU ARE A HYPOCRITE!
9. YARADUA: WE DON’T TRUST YOU ANY MORE!
10. STOP DEVELOPING ABUJA AND THE NORTH AT OUR EXPENSE!
11. NO MORE STEALING OF OUR OIL IN THE NAME OF BUILDING A FAKE ONE NIGERIA!
12. WE DID NOT SUBSCRIBE TO ONE NIGERIA!
13. THE BRITISH CREATED NIGERIA WITHOUT OUR CONSENT!
14. NO PEACE IN THE NIGER DELTA, NO OIL FOR AMERICA!
15. NO OKAH, NO OIL FOR NIGERIA!
16. NO OKAH, NO PEACE IN THE NIGER DELTA!
17. ONE NIGERIA HAS IMPOVERISHED US!
18. ONE NIGERIA IS A ‘LEGALISED ROBBERY!’
19. ABUJA: CAPITAL OF NORTHERN NIGGERIA!
20. WE DON’T BELIEVE IN ONE NIGERIA AGAIN!
21. ONE NIGGERIA IS A FRAUD!
22. WE WANT TO RULE OURSELVES!
23. NO ARMY CAN STOP US FROM REALISING OUR OBJECTIVE!
24. NO PEACE WITHOUT JUSTICE!
25. NIGER DELTA: A COLONY OF THE NORTH!
26. HELP! OUR OIL IS BEING STOLEN BY THE NORTH!
27. WE WANT TO END OUR UNSUBSCRIBED RELATIONSHIP IN NIGGERIA!
28. WE ARE FREEDOM FIGHTERS, AND NOT TERRORISTS!
29. NO TO INTERNAL COLONIALISM!
30. YARADUA! LET OUR PEOPLE GO!
31. NATIONAL REFERENDUM NOW!
32. NO REFERENDUM, NO PEACE IN THE NIGER DELTA!
33. NO REFERENDUM, NO OIL FOR AMERICA!
34. ONLY A NATIONAL REFERENDUM CAN SOLVE THE CRISIS!
35. WHO IS AFRAID OF REFERENDUM?
36. LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES IN A REFERENDUM!
37. LET US DECIDE THE FAITH OF NIGERIA IN A REFERENDUM!
38. TAKE YOUR HANDS OFF OUR OIL PARASITES!
39. THE EMERGENCE OF NIGERIA IS A TRAGEDY FOR THE SOUTH!
40. YARADUA, WE WILL NEVER ALLOW YOU TO STEAL OUR OIL AGAIN!
41. THIS IS INTERNAL COLONIALISM, AND NOT NATION BUILDING!

A special committee that will plan, organize and manage this event needs to be set up for this. Picketing could also be complemented with throwing rotten eggs, tomatoes, urine, cold water, blood, paint, oil, etc, at Yaradua during public appearances – both inside and outside Nigeria. This tactics wi

ll also go a long way in worsening Yaradua’s health.