As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, all eyes are on the political machinery of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. While his rise to the presidency in 2023 was heralded as a masterclass in political strategy and consensus-building, the tide may already be turning against him. Mounting economic woes, widespread public discontent, and diminishing trust in government are converging to threaten his chances of a second term.
When Tinubu took office in May 2023, he wasted no time in rolling out sweeping economic reforms. The most controversial among them was the abrupt removal of the petrol subsidy—a policy that had been a political landmine for years. While praised by international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank, this move sent shockwaves through an already fragile economy. Overnight, the cost of petrol tripled, transportation costs soared, and inflation surged. By March 2025, inflation had climbed to over 34%, the highest in two decades. The naira lost more than 70% of its value within a year, leading to a spike in food prices and pushing millions of Nigerians below the poverty line.
Tinubu’s administration also unified the multiple exchange rates, a long-overdue reform aimed at curbing arbitrage and stabilizing the forex market. Yet, the implementation was rushed and chaotic, leading to massive volatility. The Central Bank of Nigeria attempted damage control by raising interest rates, but that only slowed economic activity and deepened hardship for businesses and households alike. Electricity tariffs and telecom charges were also hiked as part of subsidy removal efforts, further eroding the purchasing power of the average Nigerian.
Despite a reported $6.83 billion balance of payments surplus in 2024, the economic success story remains largely on paper. Most Nigerians are not feeling the impact of these reforms. The gap between macroeconomic stabilization and microeconomic reality is glaring—and politically dangerous. Unemployment remains stubbornly high, and food insecurity continues to plague rural and urban communities alike. The urban poor, once Tinubu’s stronghold in Lagos and other metropolitan centers, are increasingly disillusioned.
The political fallout is already being felt. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) have staged nationwide protests, demanding wage increases and reversing anti-poor policies. Civil society groups and student unions have also begun to mobilize. Echoes of the 2012 fuel subsidy protests and the #EndSARS movement have started to reverberate. The current climate mirrors the public mood that cost Goodluck Jonathan his presidency in 2015.
Critics, including the Chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Shehu Gabam, argue that Tinubu’s administration is alienating the very masses that propelled him to power. Gabam warned that unless the president changes course, he may not survive 2027 politically. He pointed out that no president has won re-election in Nigeria while battling public outrage over economic hardship. In his words, “If Jonathan could be swept out in 2015 despite his many achievements, then Tinubu—who is facing protests and disillusionment across the country—should know his chances are slim.”
Adding fuel to the fire is the administration’s perceived intolerance for opposition and dissent. From controversial clampdowns on media outlets to security crackdowns on peaceful protesters, the presidency has been accused of stifling democratic space. This has led to growing international concern about the trajectory of Nigeria’s democracy under Tinubu’s watch.
There is also the question of internal party dynamics. The APC itself is not monolithic. There are simmering tensions between old political godfathers, Northern power blocs, and Tinubu’s loyalists. If these rifts deepen, Tinubu could face resistance not just from the electorate but also from within his own political home. The possibility of defections or parallel presidential ambitions cannot be ruled out.
With elections barely two years away, Tinubu faces a crucial test: can he turn around the narrative and deliver tangible relief to the Nigerian people? Or will he join the growing list of one-term Nigerian presidents whose political capital evaporated in the face of mounting national frustration?
As it stands, the odds are stacked against him. Unless urgent measures are taken to address the economy, rebuild public trust, and reassert democratic values, 2027 may well mark the end of Tinubu’s political dominance—and the beginning of yet another seismic shift in Nigeria’s tumultuous democracy.
